Tag Archives: technical analysis

Stocks and Precious Metals at opposite turning points?

I feel we are at a major turning point for the major world sharemarkets and full gold and silver. Below is my interpretation of the chart technicals.

S&P500

Australian All Ords

AUD/USD

AUD/EUR

Gold (US$)

Silver (US$)

Cheers
Scott

Technical Analysis – 30 January 2012 – TRY, KCN, DLS

Three charts this week.

2011 Annual Tipping Results

1st_2011_shares_com_au_annual_tipping_comp

Each year, for about seven years now, I have participated in the Annual Shares.com.au Tipping Comp. These are the three stocks I selected for 2011, with the reasoning (the comp used 31/12/10 for opening prices):

posted: 2 January 2011

Always struggle to pick three.. narrowed it down to four, so DRM will have to miss out.

Three gold picks:

NST – Northern Star. NST bought the Paulson’s gold mine from IAU in mid-2010. The mine is performing above expectations. NST should be revalued. Currently has a low market cap of $116 million.

KRM – Kingrose Mining. A small gold producer in Indonesia which is has very low production costs (US$147 p/ounce). KRM should make significant profits throughout 2011 and has good exploration ground.

PIR – Papillon Resources. Small gold explorer in West Africa. Had a good run in 2010, should continue with more exploration success.

The results:
NST: + 101.3%

NST - Northern Star

KRM: - 0.7%

KRM - Kingrose Mining

PIR: - 0.9%

Papillion Resources

Overall I finished 1st out of 23 entrants, whereby I made an average gain for the three stock selections of + 33.3%.

Only one other entrant had a positive result from the three selections. This is how the group of 23 compared to the All Ords.

2011 Shares.com.au Annual Tipping Results

Interestingly, the forth pick I couldn’t include:
DRM was down only - 1.1%

In comparison:
* the Australian All Ords Index fell - 15.4% in 2011;
* physical gold (US/oz) increased by + 10.0% in 2011; and
* physical silver (US/oz) increased by - 10.4% in 2011.

The overall theme for stocks in 2011 was major volatility, a trend I expect to continue for many years to come. The Australian market, and most world stockmarkets are in a secular bear market which may last for another 10 to 15 years.

Money can be made in any market though, if you trade with discipline, by using trailing stop losses on the gains, and keeping the losses small.

Cheers
Scott

Technical Analysis – 11 December 2011 – NCM, IAU, PRU, BDR

All_Ords_2011_monthly_candle_chart

Weekend charting 11 December 2011

Scott

Technical Analysis – 7 November 2010 – NCM, RSG, PRU, MDL, DRM

pru_chart_7.11.2010

Welcome to Technical Analysis (TA) session for the weekend of 7 November 2010.

Five different gold stocks this week. The major, 3 with a presence in west Africa, and a newly listed minnow.

  • NCM – Newcrest Mining

    Newcrest Mining Chart 7 November 2010

    TA Commentary:

    NCM looking even stronger with the recent acquisition of Lihir Gold. Recent breakout of $39.25 resistance area is very significant. Shareprice recently tested this and is now looking to make new highs.

    Fundamentals snapshot:
    Positives:
    * top 5 global gold producer
    * low cost producer
    * next to no debt

    Negatives:
    * few overall negatives – more mature share price (less explosive share-price compared to speculative stocks)

  • RSG – Resolute Mining

    Resolute Mining Chart 7 November 2010

    TA Commentary:

    RSG’s shareprice shooting up recently riding the price of gold wave. Short term technicals look positive, but next few days should confirm whether this has more left in it or if its a false setup.

    Fundamentals snapshot:
    Positives:
    * producer from 3 mines
    * fairly high cost producer, however high gold price means greater relative profit return.

    Negatives:
    * foreign risk
    * some debt
    * disappointed market in the past

  • PRU – Perseus Mining

    Perseus Mining Chart 7 November 2010

    TA Commentary:

    PRU had a nice gap on Friday with strong volume. MACD histogram indicates SP could run a bit over next few days. Long term trend intact.

    Fundamentals snapshot:
    Positives:
    * two large new mines (200koz each) on the horizon

    Negatives:
    * in development phase, yet to produce

  • MDL – Mineral Deposits

    Mineral Deposits Chart 7 November 2010

    TA Commentary:

    MDL currently having a good run since breaking out on 23 August 2010. A few early breakaway gaps confirmed the bull trend has momentum. $1.50 possible in the short run if it can move and stay about $1.25.

    Fundamentals snapshot:
    Positives:
    * one significant gold mine operating in Senegal.
    * Proven track record

    Negatives:
    * stock has been largely unnoticed after gold mine developed

  • DRM – Doray Minerals

    Doray Minerals Chart 7 November 2010

    TA Commentary:

    DRM listed earlier this year and got off to a flying start. Drilling Andy Well Project in Western Australia and continues to find good gold grades. Even though its shareprice has gone from 20c to high of $1.65, its market cap remains around $40 million. Plenty of upside with more drilling to come.

    Fundamentals snapshot:
    Positives:
    * small market cap
    * plenty of upside potential

    Negatives:
    * very speculative stock
    * very low liquidity
    * company a couple of years away from production

    Please feel free to add any comments.

    ~ Scott