Tag Archives: gold

Weekend Charting 5 Oct 2014 – NST, DRM, TGZ

Gold and silver price (USD) continue to have a terrible time. Time for an update:

Gold (USD)

Gold currently sitting on a significant support line at $1190. The last two occasions the price hit this area in June 2013 and Dec 2013, the price rebounded back to $1250 in a matter of a few weeks (and then onto $1420). Should $1190 fail, then I’d expect at least $1065 to be hit.
XAUUSDO_scottreevecom_6oct2014

Silver (USD)

Silver recently broke support at $18.62 and hit below $16.92 support. Silver last consolidated strongly between these two levels between Sep 2009 – Aug 2010 and between Feb and Aug 2008, so there may be a bottom at current levels and some more sideways action? If not, then I’d expect at least $14.65 to hit next support level – a major support level that goes back to April 2006.
XAGUSDO_scottreevecom_6oct2014

NST (Weekly):

NST has some buying support in the $1.20s. Should this area fail, a test of $1.09 is likely. Next couple of days will determine next direction (see short term candlesticks with wedge formed).
NST_scottreevecom_5oct2014

Close up of Daily candlestick chart:
NST_daily_scottreevecom_5oct2014

DRM (Weekly)

DRM now fallen 11 of last 12 weeks, breaking some key support lines. Technically the only real potential support area on the chart is around 40 cents when DRM last hit the area in June 2013. Hard to see on my small chart, but the last two weeks have shown some “tails” to the weekly candles indicating current buying support below 50 cents.
DRM_scottreevecom_4oct2014

TGZ (Weekly)

TGZ is a fairly illiquid gold stock. Nonetheless, weekly candlesticks create a more clear view on the areas of resistance and support. The 80 cent region has been a dominant area of resistance, whereas 55 cent has been a strong support level, and the place to watch if the current trending support line is broken.
TGZ_scottreevecom_4oct2014

Cheers
Scott

The Secret World of Gold

Great documentary going through gold’s influence on world economies and in wartime.

The war games continue today. What’s happened to the gold reserves in Greece, Libya, Ukraine and other countries going through crisis in recent years… ? Follow the gold.

Must Watch: Grant Williams video on the current financial crisis

A good update on where we are at in the financial crisis. Some good charts included:

Taking $8.8bn from taxpayers to cosy up to rich bankers

The new Australian Government announced this week that it has already given the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) a $8.8 billion one-off grant.

Explanation:

The money will be added to a fund used to offset the central bank’s exposure to risky financial assets.

So stealing money from Australians (through taxes) to give to rich central bankers?….

  • Treasurer Joe Hockey joins the previous two Australian Treasurers for sucking up to the global banking aristocracy
  • Wayne Swan – in 2012 provided the International Monetary Fund (IMF) with US$7 billion to a “European bailout package” to apparently “help stabilise” the region.

  • Peter Costello – in 1997 with the RBA, sold 167 tonnes of Australian Government gold holdings, helping push the world gold price down to an 11-year low. Australia now has around 80 tonnes of gold reserves.

    So could it be the international bankers still control Australia?

    Lets also not forget the RBA’s chequered history with its subsidary companies, Note Printing Australia and Securency International – companies charged with paying bribes in foreign countries to get note printing contracts. The full thruth has never come out on this one…..

    It’s time everyone learnt about the biggest scam in history… the looting by the banks (and Governments) will continue unless we wake up to it.

  • Must Watch: Michael Maloney’s Hidden Secrets of Money

    Compulsary viewing for anyone interested in where the global debt crisis is likely to head next and why researching more about gold and silver is vitally important. This is what your financial advisor and Superannuation Fund managers probably don’t want you to know about…

    Highly recommend checking Mike’s best selling book on gold and silver and subscribing to his Youtube channel. The first 4 episodes of Hidden Secrets of Money have been released.

    ~ Scott

    Gold Shares Bloodbath continues

    Half of 2013 down, and now the so called ‘defensive blue chips’ are now falling heavily like the gold sector…

    au_vs_ncm

    NCM is the largest gold stock on the ASX by far, and has clearly has some problems.

    Here is a base 100 chart of the gold stocks in the ASX200
    asx200_gold_stocks__scottreevecom_30_june_2013

    So in percentage terms, all the gold stocks have crashed together (and remember these are some of the better ones on the ASX)
    au_30june2013_asx200_percent
    au_30june2013_asx200_percent

    and a closer look at the handful which I think will be good buys when the dust finally settles… this could still be a while off – (refer to the my Gold Shares Bloodbath post below this one)
    asx200_gold_stocks__scottreevecom_30_june_2013_ii

    Gold Shares Bloodbath

    =======================

  • UPDATE: Post now includes charts for NCM, OGC, PIR, TGZ (as of 10 June 2013)
    =======================
    On Friday 12 April 2013, the US dollar gold price plummeted 5.6 per cent and silver fell 6.0 per cent. At time of writing on 15 April, both continue to slide with gold price in Australian dollars at A$1340 and silver at A$22. Major support lines have now been broken and the heavy falls are likely going to continue for a while yet.

    The bloodbath on the ASX today can be seen in the watch list below:

    gold_asx_15.04.2013

    As is clear above, the one gold major on the ASX, Newcrest Mining fell over 8 per cent in the session. Even the low cost producers got smashed as much as the marginal gold producers… (more on that later)

    As I posted at the end of 2012, Newcrest (and gold shares generally) have been underperforming for over two years now.
    ncm_2013_shoker_goldmarketscentral

    With today’s losses, NCM is currently down 20.8 per cent for 2013.

    In all seriousness who would want to touch gold and silver right now?

    I don’t blame anyone if they are leaving the gold or silver markets right now. Like trading anything, it’s all in the timing and the charts are showing that both gold and silver price will get cheaper (unless there is a major bounce in the next couple of days…unlikely).

    Gold and silver’s fundamentals today are better than they have been for decades. Yet again there is now a large disconnect between what’s happening in the physical market and what the gold price and gold shares are indicating. We have tens of thousands of paper gold and silver contracts flooding the market, yet we have the likes of central banks trying to repatriate their gold reserves, but being told the gold likely doesn’t exist yet. Take the German Bundesbank being told it would take 7 years for nearly 700 tonnes of its gold bullion reserves to be flown back to der Fatherland from Paris and New York (yet this amount of gold could fit on a couple of airliners tomorrow if the gold existed…).

    Most years since the gold/silver secular bull market started 12 years ago, gold and silver always had at least one savage sell off each year. This is why many investors always warn about investing in gold/silver with leverage – it’s easy to get caught out. See this chart I did back in Sept 2011, which shows these severe pull backs. This current sell off is just another example of volatility in gold and silver markets. In the past these sell off periods have all been fantastic buying opportunities. In a debt laden Western World, in a world where Japan is destroying its currency, and China has printed more credit than the entire US financial system since 2009 …. then I’m pretty confident to say that gold and silver will remain being a desired currency to store wealth and maintain purchasing power.

    Back in 2008, the gold price fell 34% from peak to trough before returning to its bull market
    . Silver when from around US$20 to about US$7.50 – when I first became awake to gold and silver’s fundamentals.

    By the time Lehmann Brothers went under, and like.. half the world’s financial industry on 15 September 2008, gold and silver had already been falling for 6-7 months and bottomed soon after the GFC panic started in that September. Perhaps gold and silver is yet again being a leading indicator of things to come later this year?

    The best part about the current sell off is that the lowest cost producers, which high-grade gold near surface are getting sold off just as heavily as the marginal gold stocks. When the dust settles, there will be some big bargains.

    In my opinion (no buy recommendations or advise here… just my opinion), these are some of the gold stocks worth watching. Who knows when they will bottom.

    (Click to enlarge)
    scottreeve_gold_stocks_april2013
    Disclosure: I currently have a small parcel in TGZ.

    My observations are based on gold resource, production, cost… the “economics”. Political/management risks can change the desirable attributes of these stocks rather quickly!
    I would also say that there are few gold stocks in Australia worth touching these days because the cost structure is getting out of control. The last few years there have been too many mid-tier and major gold companies that have put $100s millions into growth and expansion, and are paying for it in their cost structure. Now is the time to find the best of the best in terms of high-grade gold and low cost. Right now South America looks good and as always gold deposits that are very high grade and shallow to get to!.

    ** Important note: Not all gold companies report complete total cash costs. Some companies excludes taxes, exploration, depreciation, depletion expenses, financing etc from their calculation. This can make it difficult to compare companies cost structure – the difference can be large. For example, in January 2013, one Australian analyst found that

    “the average total production cost was $1,170 an ounce, compared with an average reported cash cost of $773 an ounce.”


    Quick background on these companies mentioned above:

    Two weeks ago I charted BDR and DRM and their support lines are clear to see. In the coming days I will update this post with technical analysis of the other stocks. They will also be posted at www.goldmarketscentral.com

    Newcrest Mining
    Newcrest is on my list as it is the only gold major on the ASX. NCM has had consecutive years of underperforming, but when the gold market bottoms, NCM should bounce. Following the stockmarket lows in 2008 NCM rebounded around 90 percent in 6 months (from $21 to $40 p/share). Yes, dogs can turn into market darlings quickly. I suspect one day soon NCM will resolve its expansion issues at Lihir and Cadia and solid returns should result.

    NCM_scottreevecom_10june2013

    Oceanagold
    The Didipio Mine (Philippines) is estimated to be one of the lower cost gold mines (net of by-product credits) globally. Didipio Mine estimated cash costs of FY2013 at negative $370 to negative $50 per ounce, due to net by-product credits from 15,000 – 18,000 tonnes of copper.

    OGC_scottreevecom_10june2013

    Beadell Resources
    Beadell has just commissioned a new gold mine in northern Brazil. One of the starter pits has arguably the highest grade gold deposits in the world with grades at 30.9g/t au (almost 100,000 ounces). Another start pit contains veins of iron ore between the veins of gold bearing ore. BDR is soon to commission an iron ore concenerate plant to sell it as a by-product. This will lower BDR’s total cash cost to the lowest quartile of around US$425 per ounce.

    BDR_scottreeve.com_31.03.2013

    Papillon Resources
    Papillon raised $52.9 million in March 2013 to complete a 100,000 metre drilling program at its project in western Mali. The company already has over 4 million ounces resource from shallow drilling completed to date. There is potential for many millions of ounces to be defined in the coming months.

    PIR_scottreevecom_10june2013

    Teranga Gold
    Teranga has a proven gold mine in eastern Senegal. The company made significant inroads in 2012 by reducing its operating costs by expanding its plant; found a new gold deposit nearby (at grades of 5.3/gt au), and will soon eliminate its hedge book in the coming months.

    tgz_ax_price_weekly.10dec10_to_25jul13

    Doray Mining
    Currently developing one of the highest grade gold projects in Australia at Andy Well. The main pit at Andy Well has a resource grade of 15.1g/t au. First gold production is expected in September 2013 at an annual rate of 74,000 oz per annum. Total cash costs expected to be around A$868 per ounce.

    DRM_scottreeve.com_31.03.2013

    Cheers
    ~ Scott

  • The new frontier – extracting gold and silver from the sea floor

    We often hear of gold and silver being mined from open pits and underground mines… but more recently there has been some bold entrepreneurs that are going to extra lengths to get gold and silver form the sea floor.

    Here’s a few cool TV series on mining/exploring for gold and silver… if you can get hands on a copy.

    Silver Rush

    A three-part series narrated by Mike Rowe, tells the story of one of the greatest deep-sea treasure quests of all time. The series will take viewers on board Odyssey’s flagship, the Odyssey Explorer, as it launches its most audacious operation ever — locate and excavate three shipwrecks worth as much as a billion dollars all in one season. But will they be able to complete the entire recovery effort in just 90 days before punishing storms roll in?


    silver bullion brought up from one of the shipwrecks (4kms under the surface):
    Silver Rush

    For more info visit Odyssey Marine Exploration

    Bering Sea Gold

    In Nome, Alaska, the gold rush is on. Meet the dredgers, driven by gold fever and sometimes desperate need, who pilot their ragtag dredges and dive with hoses to suck up gold from the bottom of the frigid, unpredictable Bering Sea.

    Bering Sea Gold (Under the Ice)

    The summer season over, 3 teams of miners dive under the ice to dredge gold on the floor of the Bering Sea. Two dredge teams struggle to winterize their operations, train their crews, and get the gold. But one new, scrappy crew of friends hits pay dirt.

    more on these vids at: GMC

    In the not too distant future, mining gold and silver from the seafloor with heavy machinery? It’s not far away..

    Nautilus Minerals

    is the first company to explore the ocean floor for polymetallic seafloor massive sulphide deposits. Nautilus was granted the first mining lease for such deposits at the prospect known as Solwara 1, in the territorial waters of Papua New Guinea, where it is aiming to produce copper, gold and silver.

    Nautilus Minerals
    For more info visit Nautilus Minerals

    As Ron Paul puts it… If you had two ships sink to the bottom of the Ocean A) one with gold and silver on it B) the other with US dollars. Which would the diver go back for? One is real money with intrinsic value, the other can be printed in unlimited quantities.

    Cheers
    Scott

    Stocks and Precious Metals at opposite turning points?

    I feel we are at a major turning point for the major world sharemarkets and full gold and silver. Below is my interpretation of the chart technicals.

    S&P500

    Australian All Ords

    AUD/USD

    AUD/EUR

    Gold (US$)

    Silver (US$)

    Cheers
    Scott

    RBA admits our 80 tonnes of gold isn’t stored in Australia

    Australia has one of the most respected bullion mints in the world in Perth, secure vaults in many of our cities, yet leaves our gold in London (if it hasn’t been lent out already!, does it exist?)

    I came across this correspondance on Casey Reserach:

    Dear Brian,

    Thank you for your email. The Reserve Bank has confirmed the following:

    As at end-June 2011 the Reserve Bank of Australia held 80 tonnes of gold in London Good Delivery bars. The Reserve Bank holds 99.9 per cent of its gold reserves in the United Kingdom at the Bank of England. The remaining 0.1 per cent is held at the Reserve Bank’s Head Office in Sydney.

    London is a major global gold trading market and the Bank of England provides a secure and cost-effective storage location for central banks and market participants. The Reserve Bank has processes in place to ensure that the gold reserves are maintained appropriately. It is not considered necessary from management, security or operational perspectives to relocate the gold bars to a facility in Australia.

    The Reserve Bank has reviewed its approach to releasing details about its management of the physical reserves of gold and decided to release the above information.

    Regards,

    Manager | Media & Public Relations Office RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA | 65 Martin Place, Sydney NSW 2000

    James Turk’s Outlook for Gold for 2013 to 2015

    A good, well explained video by James Turk on the gold market and gold’s role in preserving purchasing power.

    James Turk’s Outlook for Gold for 2013 to 2015

    In this latest video James provides an update to a longstanding forecast that he made back in 2003 in Barron’s. This interview was widely talked about because whilst the gold price was USD350 at the time, James stated that he envisioned the gold price to be around USD8,000 sometime between 2013-2015.

    Now 9 years later, James looks back on this forecast and explains how this original price target was determined. As this timeframe is approaching, James goes on to update this forecast considering the current economic climate.

    James argues that the reasons laid out in 2003, that would impact negatively the purchasing power of the dollar, thereby positively impacting the price of gold, are in fact worse than anticipated.

    Gold’s 2012 Performance vs 158 Currencies

    [B]Gold’s 2012 Performance vs 158 Currencies[/B]

    ==========================
    Who are we?

    I come in different names, shapes and colours.

    People use me as a medium of exchange.

    Each year I seem to buy less and less things.

    You may recognise some of my names: dollar, pounds, kroner, peso, yen, euro.

    Last year for the 12th consecutive year, nearly all of us lost purchasing power to a former acquaintance, gold.

    We are:

    Fiat currencies
    ==========================

    – All but a few of the 158 currencies listed below lost value to gold in 2012



    It is clear from these numbers that governments worldwide continue to use inflation (money expansion) as a means to destroy your every day purchasing power.

    “Inflation and credit expansion, the preferred methods of present day government openhandedness, do not add anything to the amount of resources available. They make some people more prosperous, but only to the extent that they make others poorer.” – Ludwig von Mises –

    Cheers
    Scott