Category Archives: Shares

Weekend Charting 5 Oct 2014 – NST, DRM, TGZ

Gold and silver price (USD) continue to have a terrible time. Time for an update:

Gold (USD)

Gold currently sitting on a significant support line at $1190. The last two occasions the price hit this area in June 2013 and Dec 2013, the price rebounded back to $1250 in a matter of a few weeks (and then onto $1420). Should $1190 fail, then I’d expect at least $1065 to be hit.

Silver (USD)

Silver recently broke support at $18.62 and hit below $16.92 support. Silver last consolidated strongly between these two levels between Sep 2009 – Aug 2010 and between Feb and Aug 2008, so there may be a bottom at current levels and some more sideways action? If not, then I’d expect at least $14.65 to hit next support level – a major support level that goes back to April 2006.

NST (Weekly):

NST has some buying support in the $1.20s. Should this area fail, a test of $1.09 is likely. Next couple of days will determine next direction (see short term candlesticks with wedge formed).

Close up of Daily candlestick chart:

DRM (Weekly)

DRM now fallen 11 of last 12 weeks, breaking some key support lines. Technically the only real potential support area on the chart is around 40 cents when DRM last hit the area in June 2013. Hard to see on my small chart, but the last two weeks have shown some “tails” to the weekly candles indicating current buying support below 50 cents.

TGZ (Weekly)

TGZ is a fairly illiquid gold stock. Nonetheless, weekly candlesticks create a more clear view on the areas of resistance and support. The 80 cent region has been a dominant area of resistance, whereas 55 cent has been a strong support level, and the place to watch if the current trending support line is broken.


Taking $8.8bn from taxpayers to cosy up to rich bankers

The new Australian Government announced this week that it has already given the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) a $8.8 billion one-off grant.


The money will be added to a fund used to offset the central bank’s exposure to risky financial assets.

So stealing money from Australians (through taxes) to give to rich central bankers?….

  • Treasurer Joe Hockey joins the previous two Australian Treasurers for sucking up to the global banking aristocracy
  • Wayne Swan – in 2012 provided the International Monetary Fund (IMF) with US$7 billion to a “European bailout package” to apparently “help stabilise” the region.

  • Peter Costello – in 1997 with the RBA, sold 167 tonnes of Australian Government gold holdings, helping push the world gold price down to an 11-year low. Australia now has around 80 tonnes of gold reserves.

    So could it be the international bankers still control Australia?

    Lets also not forget the RBA’s chequered history with its subsidary companies, Note Printing Australia and Securency International – companies charged with paying bribes in foreign countries to get note printing contracts. The full thruth has never come out on this one…..

    It’s time everyone learnt about the biggest scam in history… the looting by the banks (and Governments) will continue unless we wake up to it.

  • Free universal healthcare is not sustainable in Australia or anywhere over the long run…

    The Centre for Independent Studies released a thought provoking paper on the critical need to reform the public health system in Australia – a beast that continues to suck in tax dollars with diminishing output.

    Australia will face problems funding the cost of Medicare if expenditure on public hospitals continues to grow at more than twice the rate of national income as it has over the last decade. Since 2001–02, the average annual cost of public hospital care has grown 7.75%, compared to an average general rate of inflation of around 3% and an average GDP growth rate of only 3.1%.

    Greg Lindsay:

    There is too little constructive debate about health in this country. The left’s view that it is only right and proper in a rich and civilised nation for government to pay for “free” healthcare for all citizens has triumphed. …

    The bipartisan political consensus is now running hard up against financial realities. If the political class wants to preserve Medicare, they will have to make the system affordable. The public will need to be walked and talked through the limits to government capacity to tax and spend in order to build support for health reform.

    Gold Shares Bloodbath continues

    Half of 2013 down, and now the so called ‘defensive blue chips’ are now falling heavily like the gold sector…


    NCM is the largest gold stock on the ASX by far, and has clearly has some problems.

    Here is a base 100 chart of the gold stocks in the ASX200

    So in percentage terms, all the gold stocks have crashed together (and remember these are some of the better ones on the ASX)

    and a closer look at the handful which I think will be good buys when the dust finally settles… this could still be a while off – (refer to the my Gold Shares Bloodbath post below this one)

    Gold Shares Bloodbath


  • UPDATE: Post now includes charts for NCM, OGC, PIR, TGZ (as of 10 June 2013)
    On Friday 12 April 2013, the US dollar gold price plummeted 5.6 per cent and silver fell 6.0 per cent. At time of writing on 15 April, both continue to slide with gold price in Australian dollars at A$1340 and silver at A$22. Major support lines have now been broken and the heavy falls are likely going to continue for a while yet.

    The bloodbath on the ASX today can be seen in the watch list below:


    As is clear above, the one gold major on the ASX, Newcrest Mining fell over 8 per cent in the session. Even the low cost producers got smashed as much as the marginal gold producers… (more on that later)

    As I posted at the end of 2012, Newcrest (and gold shares generally) have been underperforming for over two years now.

    With today’s losses, NCM is currently down 20.8 per cent for 2013.

    In all seriousness who would want to touch gold and silver right now?

    I don’t blame anyone if they are leaving the gold or silver markets right now. Like trading anything, it’s all in the timing and the charts are showing that both gold and silver price will get cheaper (unless there is a major bounce in the next couple of days…unlikely).

    Gold and silver’s fundamentals today are better than they have been for decades. Yet again there is now a large disconnect between what’s happening in the physical market and what the gold price and gold shares are indicating. We have tens of thousands of paper gold and silver contracts flooding the market, yet we have the likes of central banks trying to repatriate their gold reserves, but being told the gold likely doesn’t exist yet. Take the German Bundesbank being told it would take 7 years for nearly 700 tonnes of its gold bullion reserves to be flown back to der Fatherland from Paris and New York (yet this amount of gold could fit on a couple of airliners tomorrow if the gold existed…).

    Most years since the gold/silver secular bull market started 12 years ago, gold and silver always had at least one savage sell off each year. This is why many investors always warn about investing in gold/silver with leverage – it’s easy to get caught out. See this chart I did back in Sept 2011, which shows these severe pull backs. This current sell off is just another example of volatility in gold and silver markets. In the past these sell off periods have all been fantastic buying opportunities. In a debt laden Western World, in a world where Japan is destroying its currency, and China has printed more credit than the entire US financial system since 2009 …. then I’m pretty confident to say that gold and silver will remain being a desired currency to store wealth and maintain purchasing power.

    Back in 2008, the gold price fell 34% from peak to trough before returning to its bull market
    . Silver when from around US$20 to about US$7.50 – when I first became awake to gold and silver’s fundamentals.

    By the time Lehmann Brothers went under, and like.. half the world’s financial industry on 15 September 2008, gold and silver had already been falling for 6-7 months and bottomed soon after the GFC panic started in that September. Perhaps gold and silver is yet again being a leading indicator of things to come later this year?

    The best part about the current sell off is that the lowest cost producers, which high-grade gold near surface are getting sold off just as heavily as the marginal gold stocks. When the dust settles, there will be some big bargains.

    In my opinion (no buy recommendations or advise here… just my opinion), these are some of the gold stocks worth watching. Who knows when they will bottom.

    (Click to enlarge)
    Disclosure: I currently have a small parcel in TGZ.

    My observations are based on gold resource, production, cost… the “economics”. Political/management risks can change the desirable attributes of these stocks rather quickly!
    I would also say that there are few gold stocks in Australia worth touching these days because the cost structure is getting out of control. The last few years there have been too many mid-tier and major gold companies that have put $100s millions into growth and expansion, and are paying for it in their cost structure. Now is the time to find the best of the best in terms of high-grade gold and low cost. Right now South America looks good and as always gold deposits that are very high grade and shallow to get to!.

    ** Important note: Not all gold companies report complete total cash costs. Some companies excludes taxes, exploration, depreciation, depletion expenses, financing etc from their calculation. This can make it difficult to compare companies cost structure – the difference can be large. For example, in January 2013, one Australian analyst found that

    “the average total production cost was $1,170 an ounce, compared with an average reported cash cost of $773 an ounce.”

    Quick background on these companies mentioned above:

    Two weeks ago I charted BDR and DRM and their support lines are clear to see. In the coming days I will update this post with technical analysis of the other stocks. They will also be posted at

    Newcrest Mining
    Newcrest is on my list as it is the only gold major on the ASX. NCM has had consecutive years of underperforming, but when the gold market bottoms, NCM should bounce. Following the stockmarket lows in 2008 NCM rebounded around 90 percent in 6 months (from $21 to $40 p/share). Yes, dogs can turn into market darlings quickly. I suspect one day soon NCM will resolve its expansion issues at Lihir and Cadia and solid returns should result.


    The Didipio Mine (Philippines) is estimated to be one of the lower cost gold mines (net of by-product credits) globally. Didipio Mine estimated cash costs of FY2013 at negative $370 to negative $50 per ounce, due to net by-product credits from 15,000 – 18,000 tonnes of copper.


    Beadell Resources
    Beadell has just commissioned a new gold mine in northern Brazil. One of the starter pits has arguably the highest grade gold deposits in the world with grades at 30.9g/t au (almost 100,000 ounces). Another start pit contains veins of iron ore between the veins of gold bearing ore. BDR is soon to commission an iron ore concenerate plant to sell it as a by-product. This will lower BDR’s total cash cost to the lowest quartile of around US$425 per ounce.


    Papillon Resources
    Papillon raised $52.9 million in March 2013 to complete a 100,000 metre drilling program at its project in western Mali. The company already has over 4 million ounces resource from shallow drilling completed to date. There is potential for many millions of ounces to be defined in the coming months.


    Teranga Gold
    Teranga has a proven gold mine in eastern Senegal. The company made significant inroads in 2012 by reducing its operating costs by expanding its plant; found a new gold deposit nearby (at grades of 5.3/gt au), and will soon eliminate its hedge book in the coming months.


    Doray Mining
    Currently developing one of the highest grade gold projects in Australia at Andy Well. The main pit at Andy Well has a resource grade of 15.1g/t au. First gold production is expected in September 2013 at an annual rate of 74,000 oz per annum. Total cash costs expected to be around A$868 per ounce.


    ~ Scott

  • Stocks and Precious Metals at opposite turning points?

    I feel we are at a major turning point for the major world sharemarkets and full gold and silver. Below is my interpretation of the chart technicals.


    Australian All Ords



    Gold (US$)

    Silver (US$)


    Kohler: Australia’s super system is a national disgrace

    On my previous blog, I wrote about the major structural flaws of Australia’s Super industry – handing tens of billions in guaranteed revenue to the pockets of financial planners every year – regardless of market conditions. Looks like Kohler has similar views:

    Australia’s super system is a national disgrace

    It doesn’t take more than a few moments of thought to understand that Australia’s superannuation system is not the paragon it’s cracked up to be.

    Savers and retirees are fully exposed to both market and longevity risk, there is very little regulation around where the money should be invested and virtually no regulation of fees.

    In other words, Australians are required by law to save 9 per cent of their salaries in an effectively unregulated privately managed system.

    The industry will argue that it is, indeed, tightly regulated, but not where it counts. Other utilities’ prices are set according to the returns on capital of the providers; in super, not only are fees essentially unregulated, but few customers even know what they are.

    Those who can actually work out the dollar amount by multiplying the basis points by the amount in their fund, which is not very many people, would have to make sure they include all the different fees in their statement – administrative and investment fees. It’s virtually impossible.

    So the superannuation industry is in the happy position of providing a service that is mandated by law where the price is both unregulated and effectively unknown.

    No wonder there are 400 super funds in this country and many more investment managers fighting to manage the $1.4 trillion in super and $9 billion a year in inflows, and little wonder that the fastest growing sector is self-managed super.

    I met an English investment manager for a coffee yesterday who, unsolicited, expressed amazement at the levels of investment fees in this country. “How long has this been going on?” he wanted to know.

    But that’s not the worst thing about our superannuation system. The worst thing is the brutal risks to which Australians are routinely exposed.

    Between about 1985 and 2000 all capital, both private and public, was removed from the support of retirement pensions. Up to that point most corporations, life offices and governments allocated part of their capital to guarantee their employees a certain retirement income.

    But in the space of a few years they all rushed out of “defined benefit” super, as it was called, to “defined contribution”, or accumulation, funds. Billions in capital was given back to happy shareholders or deployed elsewhere by even happier managers and politicians.

    It has taken about a decade for the risks of this process to become evident. For the first 10 years the fact that Australian super funds had over-exposed their unknowing clients to equities was not a problem because the stockmarket boomed.

    Now the funds have been going backwards for five years and suddenly the nation’s retirement savers are exposed to what is politely called “sequencing risk” – that is, if you want to retire when the market is down, bad luck!

    In general, very few people in Australia now know what they will have to live on when they retire. It is a lottery. In the space of two decades we have gone from knowing and not having to worry, to not having faintest clue, and worrying like hell.

    Many people, realising late in life that they won’t have enough, start taking bigger and bigger risks as they approach retirement to improve their returns, when the opposite is recommended. For some this pays; for many it is a disaster.

    Meanwhile, when we retire we are left to our own devices with a lump of money. Usually, but not always, we consult an adviser. Sometimes we give the lot to a nice man who then runs off with it.

    The advisers used to be paid commissions by investment managers, as well as unscrupulous shysters, to ensure that the money found its way back to them.

    Those commissions are now banned, in the face of a ferocious campaign from the industry, but the money still mostly goes back into “balanced” investment portfolios – that is, shares, property, hedge funds, private equity, bonds and cash – using expensive managers for each category.

    As during the saving years, retirees are thus playing the asset markets once again; nobody is guaranteeing them anything.

    So once they retire, Australians are exposed to the greatest risk of them all: that they will have the misfortune to live a long time.

    According to the Bureau of Statistics average life expectancy in Australia is now 79.5 years for males and 84 for females. But that’s an average – half the people will need to fund a retirement of more than 15-19 years (assuming retirement at 65), and many will live much, much longer than that. It’s another lottery.

    Moreover, the crackdown on smoking, the advent of effective anti-cholesterol drugs and advances in cancer research, among other things, will ensure that life expectancy increases dramatically from here.

    The cost of retiring, already enormous, is set to soar. Yet just as nobody know what fees they are paying to have their savings lost, nobody knows what it will cost them to retire and whether they will be able to afford it. Mind you, it’s usually better not to know, because you can’t afford it.

    As Winston Churchill would say, superannuation in this country is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.

    It is a national disgrace.

    Technical Analysis – 30 January 2012 – TRY, KCN, DLS

    Three charts this week.

    Weakest recovery of All Ords in 100 years


    Two more interesting charts published by Kohler last night… This is looking like a secular bear market which could last for another decade.

    Kohler –

    Australian All Ordinaries in the four big collapses and recoveries since 1900.

    This [current bear market] was the equal deepest, worse than 1929 and the same as 1973 and this recovery is the weakest of them all.

    Kohler –

    Price to Earnings valuation of all the developed world sharemarkets (which is how most analysts value stocks)

    It’s been a 12 year global bear market, cutting the average valuation of shares by half.

    ~ Scott

    Newcrest Mining – 2011 a year to forget


    2011 was an awful year for many stocks and stockmarkets around the world. Despite the global debt problems, many companies, particularly in the resources sector are making very healthy profits, are cashed up and have little or no debt. Newcrest Mining fits this criteria, but ended up falling - 27.8% in 2011, despite gold prices rising by 10.0%. Newcrest, like many other miners had its worst year since the commodity boom started a decade ago.

    Increasingly, it now seems that Newcrest, BHP Billiton and other resource stocks are a proxy for world sharemarkets rather than move up or down on their company fundamentals or value of commodities of which they produce.

    NCM – Yearly candlestick chart

    Newcrest’s market cap at the end of 2011 was $22.7 bn (down from $30.9 bn at end of 2010). Newcrest now accounts for around 47% of total gold company market cap (*excludes copper focused miners such as BHP, OZL, PNA).

    The next largest gold stocks are RRL (at $1.5 bn), PRU (at $1.1 bn) and EVN (at $1.05bn).

    2011 Market capitalisation bubble chart – ASX listed gold stocks

    ~ Scott

    2011 Annual Tipping Results


    Each year, for about seven years now, I have participated in the Annual Tipping Comp. These are the three stocks I selected for 2011, with the reasoning (the comp used 31/12/10 for opening prices):

    posted: 2 January 2011

    Always struggle to pick three.. narrowed it down to four, so DRM will have to miss out.

    Three gold picks:

    NST – Northern Star. NST bought the Paulson’s gold mine from IAU in mid-2010. The mine is performing above expectations. NST should be revalued. Currently has a low market cap of $116 million.

    KRM – Kingrose Mining. A small gold producer in Indonesia which is has very low production costs (US$147 p/ounce). KRM should make significant profits throughout 2011 and has good exploration ground.

    PIR – Papillon Resources. Small gold explorer in West Africa. Had a good run in 2010, should continue with more exploration success.

    The results:
    NST: + 101.3%

    NST - Northern Star

    KRM: - 0.7%

    KRM - Kingrose Mining

    PIR: - 0.9%

    Papillion Resources

    Overall I finished 1st out of 23 entrants, whereby I made an average gain for the three stock selections of + 33.3%.

    Only one other entrant had a positive result from the three selections. This is how the group of 23 compared to the All Ords.

    2011 Annual Tipping Results

    Interestingly, the forth pick I couldn’t include:
    DRM was down only - 1.1%

    In comparison:
    * the Australian All Ords Index fell - 15.4% in 2011;
    * physical gold (US/oz) increased by + 10.0% in 2011; and
    * physical silver (US/oz) increased by - 10.4% in 2011.

    The overall theme for stocks in 2011 was major volatility, a trend I expect to continue for many years to come. The Australian market, and most world stockmarkets are in a secular bear market which may last for another 10 to 15 years.

    Money can be made in any market though, if you trade with discipline, by using trailing stop losses on the gains, and keeping the losses small.


    2011 ASX-listed Gold Company IPO Summary

    I’ve compiled a list of 2011 IPOs which mentioned they were actively exploring for gold, held interests in gold companies or had prospective tenements for gold. 35 companies in all. Full results attached.

    Overall a terrible year for IPOs and the market generally.

    ~ Scott