Cool Housing Charts – Aus, US, International

The following housing/property charts caught my eyes over the last three months (presented by Alan Kohler on ABC News) Australian Housing Property bear markets tend to last a long time, typically 15 to 20 years. Real house prices indicate many bad years ahead in Australia (price wise). Per capita real More »


Cool charts from the last three months

The following charts caught my eyes over the last three months (presented by Alan Kohler on ABC News) More »


Steve Keen sees housing gloom

Professor Steve Keen lays down the facts of the current decline in Australia housing… His full analysis can be viewed >here More »


Weakest recovery of All Ords in 100 years

Two more interesting charts published by Kohler last night… This is looking like a secular bear market which could last for another decade. Kohler – Australian All Ordinaries in the four big collapses and recoveries since 1900. This [current bear market] was the equal deepest, worse than 1929 and the More »


Chinese real estate market down 34% since June 2011

A compelling chart by Alan Kohler – the Chinese real estate index down 34% since June 2011. Kohler – “If anything, the slide is accelerating. I seem to remember something like that happening in the United States in 2007″ Fourteen months ago I discussed the Chinese real estate bubble in More »


Newcrest Mining – 2011 a year to forget

2011 was an awful year for many stocks and stockmarkets around the world. Despite the global debt problems, many companies, particularly in the resources sector are making very healthy profits, are cashed up and have little or no debt. Newcrest Mining fits this criteria, but ended up falling - 27.8% More »


2011 Annual Tipping Results

Each year, for about seven years now, I have participated in the Annual Shares.com.au Tipping Comp. These are the three stocks I selected for 2011, with the reasoning (the comp used 31/12/10 for opening prices): posted: 2 January 2011 Always struggle to pick three.. narrowed it down to four, so More »

Weekend Charting 5 Oct 2014 – NST, DRM, TGZ

Gold and silver price (USD) continue to have a terrible time. Time for an update:

Gold (USD)

Gold currently sitting on a significant support line at $1190. The last two occasions the price hit this area in June 2013 and Dec 2013, the price rebounded back to $1250 in a matter of a few weeks (and then onto $1420). Should $1190 fail, then I’d expect at least $1065 to be hit.

Silver (USD)

Silver recently broke support at $18.62 and hit below $16.92 support. Silver last consolidated strongly between these two levels between Sep 2009 – Aug 2010 and between Feb and Aug 2008, so there may be a bottom at current levels and some more sideways action? If not, then I’d expect at least $14.65 to hit next support level – a major support level that goes back to April 2006.

NST (Weekly):

NST has some buying support in the $1.20s. Should this area fail, a test of $1.09 is likely. Next couple of days will determine next direction (see short term candlesticks with wedge formed).

Close up of Daily candlestick chart:

DRM (Weekly)

DRM now fallen 11 of last 12 weeks, breaking some key support lines. Technically the only real potential support area on the chart is around 40 cents when DRM last hit the area in June 2013. Hard to see on my small chart, but the last two weeks have shown some “tails” to the weekly candles indicating current buying support below 50 cents.

TGZ (Weekly)

TGZ is a fairly illiquid gold stock. Nonetheless, weekly candlesticks create a more clear view on the areas of resistance and support. The 80 cent region has been a dominant area of resistance, whereas 55 cent has been a strong support level, and the place to watch if the current trending support line is broken.


Leyonhjelm on OPM

Finally someone in Australia standing up for taxpayers and liberty. Politicians addicted to OPM (Income Tax alone is $183.6 bn for 2014-15!).

Monetary policy is failing Australia, just like it has for other countries

Australia’s central bank, the RBA, like all central banks, are artificially lowering interest rates to manipulate the marketplace. Australia’s housing market bubble is one of the few in the world which hasn’t popped spectacularly yet. Some of this is due to the RBA lowering interest rates, Government’s offering home owner grants and other manipulations, but above everything is foreign buyers coming to the market and China reinflating the commodities boom after the GFC hit in 2008.

Australia’s housing market:
As most money in the economy is created through fractional reserve banking, that is, when people get new loans at a bank, central banks will continually tinker with the rate of interest to manipulate people’s decisions to get ever-higher loans. In particular, the RBA wants to get more home loans signed. As the following chars show, house prices have really only taken off again in Sydney and Melbourne. The rest of Australia has a flat housing market or a contracting housing market. House prices in Hobart have contracted for over six years; Adelaide’s prices has flat-lined for the same period, as has Brisbane. Most parts of regional Australia haven’t fared much better.

So here’s one of the big faults of having a central bank manipulating interest rates. If Tasmania, South Australia and Queensland were independent countries, the RBA would be halving the current interest rates to try to stimulate those housing markets. Whereas, if Victoria and NSW were independent countries, the RBA would be lifting interest rates right now to try to take the wind out of their property markets. In essence Tasmania is quickly becoming the Greece of Australia. Tasmania’s employment prospects are weak (really only 4 major manufacturers left in the State) and this reflects in its housing prices.

Under the managed economy Australia has there is little the States can do to stimulate investment in their economies. They can’t lower the company tax rate. They can’t alter the GST rate. They can’t manipulate interest rates. These are all managed at a national level. As such, the states earning all the wealth, such as Western Australia heavily subsidise the underperforming states such as Tasmania. For instance, in 2011-12, the Commonwealth derived $49.5 billion from W.A., while expenditure back to W.A. totalled only $29.5 billion, a difference of $20.0 billion. I think most Australia’s take for granted the amount of wealth and taxes that flow from Western Australia to the east coast.

Eventually the wealthy states get tired of bailing out other regions after a while. This has been the cash in Europe for centuries, and now several regions are looking for a way out. Barcelona is doing the heavy economic lifting in Spain, and Venice want’s to be out of Italy (Venetians pay 61 bn euros in tax and gets 21 bn euros back from Rome for services).

How much evidience does one need to show that central planning doesn’t work and leds to inefficient big government?

household_financesHousehold debt has peaked which is a huge warning sign to the RBA that people are more unwilling to take on larger loans.

housing_saving_ratioPeople are tighting their belts as economic uncertainty increases job insecurity. Households are holding onto cash even though the 9 members of the RBA board think interest rates should be low and people shouldn’t be increasing savings. Low interest rates punishes savers.

The RBA can’t manipulate interest rates and get away with it forever. People are waking up.

The Secret World of Gold

Great documentary going through gold’s influence on world economies and in wartime.

The war games continue today. What’s happened to the gold reserves in Greece, Libya, Ukraine and other countries going through crisis in recent years… ? Follow the gold.

Consumer economy in 3 pictures

An interesting set of three pictures from shadesofthomaspaine blog.

I think Australia (and most of the West) is somewhere between picture 2 and 3…

Federal Reserve turns 100

The Fed turned 100 today. 100 years since The Federal Reserve Act of 1913 was passed by congress when most politicians had already left Washington for the Christmas holidays.

Since its creation the US dollar has lost over 97 per cent of its purchasing power. That is if you put aside $1 in 1913, it would have less than 3 cents worth of purchasing power left today.

Unsurprisingly, with the final restraints on money creation removed in 1971 (when the US dollar and other currencies were delinked to gold), consumer prices (cost of living pressures) increase year in year out.

Detailed analysis of the Fed by Ben Swann

Something must be wrong with the US dollar when artists start cutting them up like monopoly money.

One of the best books on the Federal Reserve and why it charter must be revoked, End the Fed by Ron Paul

and heard lots of good things about this book, but I haven’t read it yet. The Creature of Jekyll Island is about how the Federal Reserve Act was written by the banking community and convertly rubber stamped at the 11th hour to become law.

Six charts indicating that the financial crisis will get much worse

Many of the major Western Government bond yields are making all time lows. Some of these bond yields go back over 300 years. Never before has the entire world been pumping trillions of extra currency all at the same time. This can only end in disaster.

For a longer perspective, this chart shows that bond yields are really getting out of whack, and combined with trillions in money printing, Government’s around the world cannot afford to have high interest rates… but the excessive money printing will eventually catch up…

In the United States, its bond market has not been this low for 223 years. This is amazing when you look at the countless wars, interventions, social programs and other spending the US Government has done over this long period.

In France, never before in over 400 years has the French Government been able to borrow money so cheaply with the current ultra low bond yield.

and in Australia, our housing market increasingly becoming way out of wake, having its contraction further delayed by RBA interest rate manipulation, bank lending practices and Government manipulations.

And there is distinctly a similar pattern with the current Dow Jones movement with what happened in 1928-29…
Dow vs 1929

Treating non-voters as criminals… Pay $20 or else

Compulsory Voting in Australia is a complete farce and needs to go.

Hundreds of thousands (probably millions) of people go to polling booths to vote because they do not want to get fined for not going. Many of these simply get their name ticked off and put empty voting slips in the boxes. State coercion to vote clearly does not work. State coercion to simply show up works on some people. If people want to take part in voting in a democracy than that’s their choice.

Check out this notice given to persons who failed to vote at the recent Federal Election (click to enlarge)failure_to_vote

Look at the no holds barred language…

  • “it is a criminal offence to fail to vote with a valid and sufficient reason”
  • “a criminal conviction may be recorded against you”
  • In other words… “the State has control over you, so don’t f*#k with us”

    What a joke. Australia’s compulsory voting system (along with compulsory preferential voting) is a laughing stock of the western world. Where else could an ordinary citizen be treated as a suspected criminal for a small sum for not voting (or choosing not to participate in democracy)?

    Must Watch: Grant Williams video on the current financial crisis

    A good update on where we are at in the financial crisis. Some good charts included:

    ABC shamelessly using our tax dollars to continually spruik globalist green agenda

    The Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) currently receives around $1.2 billion per annum to operate countless TV, radio, online and other media services. When I say countless I mean 54 radio stations, a 24 hour news network, Network Australia (for overseas audiences), ABC1, ABC2, ABC3, ABC4 and of course a constantly updated online ABC website (in competition with Australian newspapers and other online sites).

    Over a billion dollars a year in handouts in an era where more and more Australian’s get their news from all over the world through the internet. What would the far left say if $1.2bn was taken from taxpayers backpockets and given to the Murdoch press each year? It’s time to end the subsidies. If ABC has a product people want, then it can stand on its own two feet. The blank cheque must stop.

    Now days, day-in day-out the ABC group-think continues to peddle it’s far left-wing propaganda. None worse is the ABC continually linking every localised flooding/bushfire/cyclone/heatwave to “climate change” (used to be called global warming remember?)

    The last week the ABC has particularly ramped up the number of stories it dedicated to “climate change”, by attempting to frame the New South Wales bushfires as being “unparralled”, “unprecendant” and a sign of “climate change”.

    7:30 (Report), a 7 minute segment claiming:

    Scientists say climate change link to bushfires demands action

    The Drum on ABC24 also dedicated about 20-30 minutes last night talking to a NSW Uni climate lecturer about the ‘unparalled emergency’ with the current bushfire.

    • Nevermind that 11 of 48 major bushfires in NSW between 1926 and 2006 occurred in October or earlier.
    • One of the largest bushfires occurred way back before people were concerned about global warming:
    The ‘Black Thursday’ fires of 6 February 1851 in Victoria, burnt the largest area (approximately 5 million ha) in European-recorded history and killed more than one million sheep and thousands of cattle as well as taking the lives of 12 people (CFA 2003a; DSE 2003b).
    They are considered the largest Australian bushfires in a populous region in recorded history, with approximately 5 million hectares, or a quarter of Victoria, being burnt.


  • UN climate chief Christiana Figueres calls for global action amid NSW bushfires

    The United Nations says the New South Wales bushfires are an example of “the doom and gloom” the world may be facing without vigorous action on climate change.

    7:30 (Report) gets everybodies favourite alarmist… (somehow an expert on Australian bushfires and localised weather events)

  • Former US vice-president and environmentalist Al Gore says there is a proven link between climate change and bushfires.

    All week the Australian public get lectured by the ABC about climate change and bushfires. All 100% bollocks.

    Logic, reason? Other views?

    Why doesn’t the ABC have a balance of opinions from actual bush fire experts or climate sceptics with opposing views like David Evans, who submitted his article to the Age, but was refused at the last minute.

  • Fuel Loads Not Climate Change are Making Bushfires More Severe

    People have been burning off to keep fuel loads low in Australia for thousands of years.

    Current fuel loads are now typically 30 tonnes per hectare in the forests of southeast Australia, compared to maybe 8 tonnes per hectare in the recent and ancient pasts. So fires burn hotter and longer.

    Aparently the ABC spoke to some bushfire experts, like this one, who had a 35 minute interview with 7:30 but they only used 69 words, because he said the bushfires were NOT linked to the bushfires.

    Least there is a few journalists left in Australia prepared to call out all the BS that the ABC peddles:

    The ABC is a national disgrace. Today, the ABC is nothing more than a loudhailer for the Green movement and other Globalists who want to take away our liberties and the sovereignty of nations to decide on their future. It’s time to sell the ABC or cut it (likewise the SBS).

  • Taking $8.8bn from taxpayers to cosy up to rich bankers

    The new Australian Government announced this week that it has already given the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) a $8.8 billion one-off grant.


    The money will be added to a fund used to offset the central bank’s exposure to risky financial assets.

    So stealing money from Australians (through taxes) to give to rich central bankers?….

  • Treasurer Joe Hockey joins the previous two Australian Treasurers for sucking up to the global banking aristocracy
  • Wayne Swan – in 2012 provided the International Monetary Fund (IMF) with US$7 billion to a “European bailout package” to apparently “help stabilise” the region.

  • Peter Costello – in 1997 with the RBA, sold 167 tonnes of Australian Government gold holdings, helping push the world gold price down to an 11-year low. Australia now has around 80 tonnes of gold reserves.

    So could it be the international bankers still control Australia?

    Lets also not forget the RBA’s chequered history with its subsidary companies, Note Printing Australia and Securency International – companies charged with paying bribes in foreign countries to get note printing contracts. The full thruth has never come out on this one…..

    It’s time everyone learnt about the biggest scam in history… the looting by the banks (and Governments) will continue unless we wake up to it.

  • Must Watch: Michael Maloney’s Hidden Secrets of Money

    Compulsary viewing for anyone interested in where the global debt crisis is likely to head next and why researching more about gold and silver is vitally important. This is what your financial advisor and Superannuation Fund managers probably don’t want you to know about…

    Highly recommend checking Mike’s best selling book on gold and silver and subscribing to his Youtube channel. The first 4 episodes of Hidden Secrets of Money have been released.

    ~ Scott